Monday, August 4, 2008

The Injury Bugaboo

What do the following players have in common?

  • Brian Westbrook
  • Marc Bulger
  • Donovan McNabb
  • Ronnie Brown
  • Javon Walker
  • Cadillac Williams
  • Marvin Harrison

They either had a major injury last season or a history of injuries over the course of their careers. Where do you draft them?

I remember in the '04 season Priest Holmes was injured part of the season and Larry Johnson played great ball in his absence. I said to myself, "Priest is going to get injured next season. I'm targeting Larry Johnson."

I picked up Larry Johnson in the 8th round and he carried my team in '05 to a second place finish when injuries tore up my roster.

Let's look at these players:

Brian Westbrook
Last year was a great season because he did not get hurt. Westbrook is a top5 back in any draft, especially in PPR (point per reception) leagues. But if Westbrook gets injured look for the Eagles to throw all over the field, because his backups aren't worth much, though I do hear Lorenzo Booker is making a name for himself in camp. Something to watch...

Marc Bulger
Count on this guy having a concussion, sprained something, tweaked something and missing a game or two before the season is out. You better have a backup QB at the ready. Top 10 QB still.

Donovan McNabb
DMcNabb was leading me to a championship two years ago when he got injured being pushed out of bounds. I never forgot that. It was the most innocent looking play. The defender hardly touched him. He's a top 8 QB and he will fall to the later rounds because of the history. Might be an excellent value pickup, but have a decent backup.

Ronnie Brown
Brown was LaDainian Tomlinson Jr. in Cam Cameron's system in Miami. They might have won 3 games if they had him the whole season instead of the one. But his torn ACL was bad news. They generally say it takes two years to fully recover. On the strength of his shortened season he'd be a top 10 RB. But that injury pushes him to second or third round material. Get Ricky Williams as the handcuff.

Javon Walker
Major injuries and he lost the heart to play the game. Not drafted by me this year at all.

Cadillac Williams
Earnest Graham has supplanted you in the lineup. Can you recover enough to get your job back? I know I'm not drafting you this year.

Marvin Harrison
I want to believe in you, Marvin. I really do. But now I hear you had problems with BOTH knees. I believe when Tony Dungy says he believes Marvin will play. But I want to see this guy in a preseason game, making cuts and getting knocked on his azz. Then I'll believe. Otherwise I'll look at Anthony Gonzalez. TE Dallas Clark was playing in the slot and split wide for the Hall of Fame game Sunday night. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm...........

Friday, August 1, 2008

Marvin and Reggie - Happy Together?

I'm watching the NFL Network and the news scroll says that Marvin Harrison will not play in this weekend's Hall of Fame game. At first I am concerned but not really, only because there is a whole list of Colts not playing in the game. Harrison is getting on the older side of old for WRs and it would be nice to see him run some routes, make cuts at full speed and take some hits from DBs after his surgey. We'll have plenty of pre-season games to micro analyze how he runs, cuts, walks, gulps his Gatorade and adjust his cup...

If nothing else, his absence last year solidified Reggie Wayne's status as not only the top receiver on the Colts, but one of the top 3 in the league with Randy Moss and TO.

Reggie is generally going as the third wide receiver taken in fantasy football drafts but I might have to disagree. Look at the schedule WKS 14,15,16 for 2008.

IND
14: HOME vs CIN
15: HOME vs DET
16: AWAY vs JAC

NE
14: AWAY vs SEA
15: AWAY vs OAK
16: HOME vs ARI

DAL
14: AWAY vs PIT
15: HOME vs NYG
16: HOME vs BAL

Hear me out - I'm making a couple of assumptions

AFC South will be rough and tumble and the Colts will not run away from the division
AFC East will be cakewalk for Patriots
NFC East will be tough for all teams

this means...

Colts will be playing meaningful games in December at home in a DOME WK 14, 15 with all starters in fantasy playoffs and in Florida for WK 16

Cowboys will play WK 15, 16 of fantasy playoffs at home out of the cold of the Northeast

Patriots will be firmly in control of the AFC East and maybe playing for home field but will not be perfect and will rest key players.

Therefore I would take
TO then
Reggie then
Randy

I might even bump Reggie up to number 1 because he plays in a dome. Less chance of weather affecting his fantasy numbers.

It will be interesting to see the dynamic as the season plays out if it is really apparent that Peyton Manning is overlooking Marvin to find Reggie. Peyton will throw to whoever is open, but Reggie is his man now. Can Marvin gracefully take a backseat?